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Message |
Felching Republican Econo
Guest
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 Posted:
Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:26 pm Post subject:
Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan
Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including
a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of
avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in
public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance
that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit
means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and
prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he
wants.
The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will
get pounded.
Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a ``Perfect Storm.''
Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.
To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he
said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.
Sustainable? Hardly.
Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.
Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half
the size of the economy.
Today the figure is 85 percent.
Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates,
leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.
Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income
paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.
You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course.
Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.
Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra
force.
The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the
euro.
Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the
world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.
It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts
agree.
The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates,
on Friday.
Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard
the presentation concluded that a ``spectacular wave of bankruptcies'' is
possible.
Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable
that America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record proportions.
But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's.
Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation
to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real
terms.
Inflation of 7 percent a year halves ``real'' values in a decade.
It may be the only way out of the trap.
Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest
losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.
You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just
4.83 percent |
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Sam
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:52 pm Post subject:
Re: Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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ya have to think that the Howdys economic
war monger oil driven error will go down
as the BOZO economic blunder of the century
lower taxes and spend a lot more,, kind-a like
someone getting laid off and taking one of
them newly created jobs a MacDEEs and going
out and buying a bigger house
Felching Republican Economist wrote:
| Quote: | http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan
Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including
a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of
avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in
public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance
that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit
means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and
prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he
wants.
The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will
get pounded.
Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a ``Perfect Storm.''
Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.
To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he
said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.
Sustainable? Hardly.
Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.
Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half
the size of the economy.
Today the figure is 85 percent.
Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates,
leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.
Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income
paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.
You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course.
Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.
Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra
force.
The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the
euro.
Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the
world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.
It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts
agree.
The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates,
on Friday.
Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard
the presentation concluded that a ``spectacular wave of bankruptcies'' is
possible.
Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable
that America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record proportions.
But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's.
Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation
to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real
terms.
Inflation of 7 percent a year halves ``real'' values in a decade.
It may be the only way out of the trap.
Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest
losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.
You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just
4.83 percent
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Effeminate Liberal Democr
Guest
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| Posted:
Wed Nov 24, 2004 9:55 pm Post subject:
Re: Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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Has this document been authenticated by Danny's typewriter mechanic?
Anyway, what's your point? We should have elected Teresa's poodle?
"Felching Republican Economist" <georgewbush@shithouse.gov> wrote in message news:DS0pd.141278$HA.60582@attbi_s01...
| Quote: | http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in
public.''
|
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| Back to top |
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Sam
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:39 am Post subject:
Re: Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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point being wrap yourself up good in toilet paper cause you
might just be fixen to take a trip
Effeminate Liberal Democrat wrote:
| Quote: | Has this document been authenticated by Danny's typewriter mechanic?
Anyway, what's your point? We should have elected Teresa's poodle?
"Felching Republican Economist" <georgewbush@shithouse.gov
mailto:georgewbush@shithouse.gov>> wrote in message
news:DS0pd.141278$HA.60582@attbi_s01...
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting
said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in
public.''
|
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Effeminate Liberal Democr
Guest
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| Posted:
Thu Nov 25, 2004 7:28 am Post subject:
Re: Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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The doltacrats need to realize the election is over and that they need to
stop trying to scare people.
They should save it for when the Hildabeast is getting her butt kicked by
Condi in '08!
Heh heh heh!
"Sam" <sam@samsneed.net> wrote in message
news:10qa3bp2kq5a288@corp.supernews.com...
| Quote: | point being wrap yourself up good in toilet paper cause you
might just be fixen to take a trip
Effeminate Liberal Democrat wrote:
Has this document been authenticated by Danny's typewriter mechanic?
Anyway, what's your point? We should have elected Teresa's poodle?
"Felching Republican Economist" <georgewbush@shithouse.gov
mailto:georgewbush@shithouse.gov>> wrote in message
news:DS0pd.141278$HA.60582@attbi_s01...
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained
a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting
said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
in
public.''
|
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|
| Back to top |
|
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Sam
Guest
|
| Posted:
Thu Nov 25, 2004 9:14 am Post subject:
Re: Republicans phuck the economy...again! |
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peers to me aint nobody scart just wondering,,,,,,,
and we wont be voten for no kitties cause men
folk will pat-on-em but wont stand behind-em
Effeminate Liberal Democrat wrote:
| Quote: | The doltacrats need to realize the election is over and that they need to
stop trying to scare people.
They should save it for when the Hildabeast is getting her butt kicked by
Condi in '08!
Heh heh heh!
"Sam" <sam@samsneed.net> wrote in message
news:10qa3bp2kq5a288@corp.supernews.com...
point being wrap yourself up good in toilet paper cause you
might just be fixen to take a trip
Effeminate Liberal Democrat wrote:
Has this document been authenticated by Danny's typewriter mechanic?
Anyway, what's your point? We should have elected Teresa's poodle?
"Felching Republican Economist" <georgewbush@shithouse.gov
mailto:georgewbush@shithouse.gov>> wrote in message
news:DS0pd.141278$HA.60582@attbi_s01...
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained
a
copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting
said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
in
public.''
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